The Implications of Governor Fubara Directing All Local Government Chairmen in Rivers State to Contest under APP in the Forthcoming Elections
Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s directive for the 23 local government chairmen in Rivers State to contest under the All People's Party (APP) in the forthcoming local government election scheduled for October 5th, 2024, has stirred significant political interest and speculation. This development comes on the heels of Fubara’s loss of control over the People's Democratic Party (PDP) structure in the state to Nyesom Wike, the former governor and now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). As Fubara's supporters in PDP refused to participate in the Ward Congress due to Wike's growing influence, many questions arise regarding the wisdom of this decision, the dynamics of Rivers State politics, and the potential outcomes of the election.
Context of the Political Rift: Fubara vs. Wike
Governor Fubara, a political protégé of Wike, was elected on the platform of the PDP, which has dominated Rivers State politics for decades. However, the alliance between the two political figures has deteriorated since Wike was appointed FCT Minister by President Bola Tinubu. Wike’s influence over the PDP in Rivers State remains formidable, and his faction maintains significant control over the party's structures. This includes orchestrating the recent Ward Congress, which saw Fubara’s supporters abstaining due to Wike’s perceived overbearing influence on key members of the party.
Faced with the challenge of competing against a well-entrenched PDP faction loyal to Wike, Governor Fubara’s decision to align his loyalists with the APP represents a bold and strategic political maneuver. The APP, although relatively small, provides an alternative platform through which Fubara’s camp can contest the forthcoming local government elections without being overshadowed by Wike's grip on the PDP.
The Political Calculus: Is APP a Wise Decision?
Fubara's directive raises important questions about the viability of the APP as a political vehicle in Rivers State. The APP is not a major player in the state’s political landscape and lacks the deep-rooted structures and resources of the PDP. The transition to a lesser-known party may come with risks, including a potential loss of support from those who view the PDP as the party of choice in Rivers State.
However, the governor’s supporters argue that contesting under the APP offers a chance to escape the shadow of Wike and reassert political independence. Local government elections, by their nature, tend to be more localized and driven by grassroots dynamics, which may benefit candidates who are directly aligned with the state government and can leverage resources and influence. Fubara's control of the state apparatus, including his ability to direct state resources and mobilize support, could give APP candidates a fighting chance despite the party's lower profile.
The Role of State Power and Local Government Influence
One of the most significant advantages Governor Fubara’s faction holds is control over the state government apparatus. Rivers State, like many others in Nigeria, has a political system where governors wield considerable power over local governments. The 23 local government chairmen who have been directed to contest under the APP are already entrenched in their respective localities and have considerable influence over local governance and resources. This gives them a strategic advantage that could potentially offset the APP’s organizational weaknesses at the state level.
Local governments are critical in Nigerian politics because they are the closest level of government to the people. They are responsible for delivering essential services and managing grassroots-level governance. As such, local government chairmen often wield significant influence over voters, particularly in rural areas. If Fubara’s supporters can retain their positions through the local government election, they will have a solid foundation to consolidate their political power and challenge Wike’s control over the state’s PDP structure in the future.
Wike’s Influence from Abuja: Will Distance Affect His Control?
Nyesom Wike remains a towering figure in Rivers State politics, but his new role as FCT Minister has taken him away from the direct day-to-day operations of the state's political machinery. Although Wike has a loyal following within the PDP and continues to exert influence over the party’s structures, his physical absence from the state could weaken his grip over local politics, particularly in an election where grassroots mobilization is key.
There is a question of whether Wike can effectively manage his political base in Rivers while being preoccupied with his duties in Abuja. While his loyalists are expected to contest under the PDP, they may face challenges in terms of coordination and mobilization, especially if Fubara’s supporters are able to utilize the machinery of the state government to their advantage. Wike's ability to transfer his national stature into a local victory in Rivers will depend on how effectively his loyalists can organize in his absence.
The Election Outlook: Fubara's Apparatus vs. Wike's Influence
The upcoming local government election in Rivers State is shaping up to be a fierce contest between two formidable political forces. On one side, Fubara’s faction has the advantage of incumbency and control over the state’s administrative resources, which could be instrumental in mobilizing support for APP candidates. On the other hand, Wike’s long-standing influence in Rivers State politics and his control over the PDP structure presents a significant challenge.
While Wike’s supporters may have the backing of the larger PDP, the question remains whether this will be enough to overcome the advantages enjoyed by Fubara’s camp, particularly at the grassroots level. Historically, control of local government elections in Nigeria tends to favor the incumbent state governor, who has direct oversight of the electoral process and considerable leverage in influencing the outcome.
Fubara’s decision to back APP candidates may also represent a calculated risk aimed at sending a message to Wike and the wider PDP establishment that he is willing to chart his own political course. A victory for APP candidates would signify Fubara’s ability to build a political base independent of Wike’s control, while a defeat would reinforce Wike’s dominance in Rivers State politics.
Conclusion: A Critical Juncture in Rivers Politics
The forthcoming local government election in Rivers State will likely set the stage for future political battles between Governor Fubara and Nyesom Wike. Fubara’s decision to contest under the APP represents both a strategic gamble and a potential opportunity to consolidate power at the local level. However, Wike’s enduring influence and the PDP’s established political machinery pose formidable obstacles.
Ultimately, the election will test the strength of Fubara’s ability to leverage state power against Wike’s political legacy. Both sides have significant stakes in the outcome, and the results will likely have far-reaching implications for the political landscape of Rivers State. While it remains to be seen who will emerge victorious, this contest underscores the shifting dynamics and deepening rifts within Rivers State’s political class
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